Data analysis for the "Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) (G1)"

The racing year closes with the "dream race" that is the Arima Kinen. Contested by numerous famous mounts in the past, this race has produced many wonderful encounters that remain engraved in the record books, and in the memory. Although 2011 will go down as the year of the Great East Japan Earthquake, it has also been quite a historic year for racing, with the arrival of the 7th Triple Crown champion in Japanese racing history and the first Dubai World Cup victory by a Japanese-trained horse, among other great moments. What drama awaits us, then, as the curtain comes down on this tumultuous year? Here, I will examine some notable trends extrapolated from the results of this race over the last ten years.

Runners last seen in G1 races predominate

Looking first at the runners' performance by the condition of their previous race, all 10 winners and 19 of the 20 top 2 finishers over the last 10 years had most recently appeared in "international & domestic G1 races" (including overseas G1). Of all the runners, 104 were last seen in a "G1 race" while 40 had previously appeared in a "non-G1 race", the difference being more than 2.5 times. By contrast, 27 of the 30 top 3 finishers came straight from G1 races and only 3 from non-G1 races, a difference of 9 times. Horses perform overwhelmingly well in this race when their last outing was a G1 race [Table 1]

Look for a top 3 finish in the previous race

Turning next to the runners' performance by finish in their previous race, we find that 8 of the 10 winning horses and 14 of the 20 top 2 finishers had finished "in the top 3 in their previous race". While remembering the data mentioned above (i.e. that all 10 winners and 19 of the 20 top 2 finishers had most recently appeared in G1 races), the track record of horses finishing in the top 3 in their previous race also deserves attention. On the other hand, another very interesting piece of data is that five top 2 finishers (including 2 winners) finished 6th or lower in their previous race. There could be room, then, for horses to turn the corner after a bad defeat in their previous race. [Table 2]

Check the track record over the last three races

Now let's look at the runners' track record in graded races in their last three outings. Here, horses with a record of "International & domestic G1 win" have produced ten top 2 finishes and an impressive top 3 ratio of 41.9%. Horses with a track record of winning a G1 race within their last three outings seem to have a very strong presence in this race. Conversely, horses with no graded race win in their last three outings have also produced seven top 2 finishes, which is also worth bearing in mind. Incidentally, the two winners from the "no graded race win" group were Heart's Cry in 2005 (previous race: Japan Cup, runner-up) and Victoire Pisa in 2010 (previous race, Japan Cup 3rd). In other words, both had a G1 race as their previous outing, and both finished in the top 3. [Table 3]

Winning horse within top 3 favorites in penultimate race…?

Runners that were not particularly fancied in their previous race have often performed well in this race; for example, 2007 winner Matsurida Gogh was 8th favorite to win his previous race (Tenno Sho Autumn). But if we look further back at the win odds favoritism in the race before that, we find that eight of the ten winners were backed "within the top 3 favorites" in their penultimate race. The other two, 2006 winner Deep Impact and 2010 winner Victoire Pisa, are excluded from the data as their penultimate race was overseas, and the same applies to 2006 runner-up Pop Rock. Horses backed "within the top 3 favorites in their penultimate race" account for 14 of the 17 top 2 finishes. Thus, a runner backed within the top 3 favorites in its penultimate race should not be viewed lightly, even if it was less favored in its previous outing. [Table 4]

(Data analysis by Michio Kono)