Data Analysis for the "Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup (G1)"

The Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup has served up a series of memorable contests in the past. Last year, for example, UK filly Snow Fairy won by four lengths. And a year before that in 2009, the title was taken by runaway leader and 11th favorite Queen Spumante, followed in 2nd place by 12th favorite T M Precure, producing a major upset with an Exacta dividend of 250,910 yen. We may be itching with anticipation over this year's contest, but it might be an idea to read up on the race trends first. So let's see if we can spot some characteristics from results over the last 10 years.

A definite pattern in win odds favoritism

Of 30 top 3 finishers in the QEII Commemorative Cup over the last 10 years, 26 have been "5th favorite" or higher in the win odds. The "2nd favorite" has produced particularly fine performances, with a top 3 ratio of 90.0%. The only 2nd favorite to be beaten down to 4th or lower was Broad Street (6th) in 2009. What's more, while the "4th favorite" in win odds has produced three victories, the "3rd favorite" has only ever managed one top 2 finish (2007 runner-up Fusaichi Pandora), a somewhat troubling trend. Maybe this aspect deserves special attention this year, too. [Table 1]

As shown above, the "1st favorite" has a top 3 ratio of 60.0%, but if we narrow this down to runners with win odds of "1.9 or less" (4 horses), we find a peerless record of success with a top 3 ratio of 100%. Events in 2009 have given this race an "unpredictable" image, but it's worth remembering that many horses finishing in the top 3 have win odds of "Less than 10". [Table 2]

Watch out for the 3-year-olds!

Only two "6-year-olds" have finished in the top 3 in the QEII Commemorative Cup over the last 10 years – Sweep Tosho (3rd) in 2007 and T M Precure (2nd) in 2009. The remaining 28 horses are spread fairly evenly among "3-year-olds" (10), "4-year-olds" (10) and "5-year-olds" (8). Particularly noteworthy, however, is that "3-year-olds" have won the race six times. Reason enough to keep an eye on the 3-year-olds this year as well. [Table 3]

Check the data on the previous race

Viewing the runners' performance in terms of their previous outing over the last 10 years, the "Shuka Sho" is the step race that has produced the most winners in this race. A worrying trend, by contrast, is that not a single winner over the last 10 years has emerged from the "Fuchu Himba Stakes", most commonly contested by 4-year-olds+ as a warm-up race. Producing the best performance in terms of success ratios are the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)" and the "Kyoto Daishoten". Entrants coming straight from these two races have a top 3 ratio of 100%. [Table 4]

Look out for female horses showing plenty of spirit

Every year, one or both of the first two finishers in the QEII Commemorative Cup are horses with a record of "Finishing in the top 3 in a mixed graded race (graded race contested by both male and female horses), or winning a race contested by both male and female horses, within their previous five outings". Nowadays, thanks to the enhanced program of graded races for female horses, it's perfectly possible for female horses to live out their active careers in races for female horses only. But perhaps the experience of performing well in races against male horses stands them in good stead for the big ones. We would do well to check for horses with such a record in this year's lineup. [Table 5]

* When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is shown.

(Data analysis by Yasunori Asano)