Data Analysis for the "Sprinters Stakes" (G1)

Originally held in December, the Sprinters Stakes was brought forward to the beginning of autumn in 2000. Since then, it has graced the final day of the first autumn meeting at Nakayama Racecourse (with a temporary spell at Niigata Racecourse in 2002). This race has produced many memorable contests over the years, notable winners including the sprinter-miler Durandal, which finished in the top two for three straight years from 2003, and Calstone Light O, which galloped to a crushing four-length victory on soft turf in 2004. Over time, the excitement of the race has been enhanced by some fantastic performances by foreign horses, including the 2005 winner Silent Witness (Hong Kong), followed in 2006 by the Australian winner Takeover Target. Let's now analyze trends in this race, focusing mainly on results over the past 10 years.

Check the performance in graded races over the previous three outings

Looking first at the runners' track records, we find a pronounced trend in the way they finished in graded races over their previous three races. Table 1 shows performances over the past 10 years (Japanese horses only). The data reveal that, of 27 runners finishing in the top three in this race, 26 had also finished in the top three in a graded race within their previous three outings. Conversely, of 52 horses finishing no higher than "4th or lower" or "Not raced" in graded races within their previous three outings, the only one to finish in the top three in this race was Tagano Bastille, placed third in 2006. The trend is even clearer for foreign horses: both the 2005 winner Silent Witness (previous race: 3rd in the Yasuda Kinen) and the 2006 winner Takeover Target (previous race: 2nd in the Centaur Stakes) had run in a JRA graded race in their previous outing, and both had finished in the top three.

* Excludes foreign-trained horses, but includes finishes in overseas races and local government racing by Japanese-trained horses.

"1st and 2nd favorites" usually do well

In the runners'performance by win odds over the past 10 years, the "1st and 2nd favorites" have certainly laid down a strong track record. The "1st favorite" has never finished 3rd but has finished in the top two seven times, while the "2nd favorite", though producing no winners, has finished in the top three eight times. Looking next at horses rated "3rd favorite or lower", the only "4th favorite" to finish in the top three actually won the race, while the other groups have each produced three or four top three finishes. In other words, there seems to be plenty of potential for horses lower in the betting stakes to do well in this race. [Table 2]

Another approach would be to study how the first two finishers were rated in the win odds [Table 3]. A trend emerging here is that, in years when the "1st favorite" was beaten into 2nd or lower place (6 times in all), the winning horse was rated lower than the horse that finished 2nd.

Check horses that were "4th favorite or higher" in their previous race

Next, let's check the performance of runners in this race by their win odds in the previous race. Though only achieving a top three ratio of 28.1%, the "1st favorite" in the previous race has produced nine horses in the top three, including four winners. These are followed by runners that were "2nd favorite" in the previous race, producing six finishers in the top three and a top three ratio of 33.3%, the highest of all. Next come horses that were "4th favorite" in the previous race, producing three winners. It may be as well, however, to note the poor performance of the "3rd favorite" in the previous race, with no top two finishes at all. Again, only two horses that were "5th favorite or lower" in their previous outing have won this race – Daitaku Yamato in 2000 ("7th favorite" in the previous race) and Silent Witness in 2005 ("5th favorite"). All seven Japanese winners of this race since 2001 were rated "4th favorite or higher" in their previous outing. [Table 4]

* Excluding cases when the previous race was overseas.

Horses rated "6th favorite or higher" in the penultimate race are worth a punt

Turning to the performance by win odds in the penultimate race, eleven horses that were "4th favorite or lower" in the order of win odds in their penultimate race finished in the top three in this race. However, of four horses that were "6th favorite or lower" in the penultimate race and finished in the top three, all three that finished in the top two were "6th favorite"; no horses that were "10th favorite or lower" finished in the top three. Conversely, all seventeen horses finishing in the top two were rated "6th favorite or higher" in their penultimate race. Also, just as with the "3rd favorite" in the previous race, the "3rd favorite" in the penultimate race produced no top two finishes – a poor trend that provides food for thought. [Table 5]

* Excluding cases when the penultimate race was overseas.

(Data analysis by Michio Kono)