Data Analysis for the "Centaur Stakes" (G2)

The Centaur Stakes is now well established as a trial race for the Sprinters Stakes, which kicks off the autumn race program. But it is also the last in the "Summer Sprint Series" that has been ongoing since July. Last year, Kanoya Zakura finished 4th in this race, amassing enough points to land a second successive triumph in the "Summer Sprint Series." Contrastingly, Laurel Guerreiro only finished 14th but won the subsequent Sprinters Stakes, achieving complete dominance of the spring and autumn sprint GI races (Takamatsunomiya Kinen and Sprinters Stakes). This is a race in which the performance of lower-placed horses is just as worth watching as the battle for the top placings. So this time, let's examine some characteristics shared by horses that have performed well in this race over the past 10 years (including 2006, when it was held at Chukyo Racecourse).

Dominance of "Fillies and Mares"

Of the 10 winners over the past 10 years, all except Golden Cast (winner in both 2004 and 2005) have been "fillies and mares." Moreover, fillies and mares have performed far better than colts, horses and geldings. In last year's Centaur Stakes, mares took the first four places, with Ultima Thule finishing 1st, Sleepless Night 2nd, Cosmo Bell 3rd and Kanoya Zakura 4th. Though officially the start of the autumn season, Centaur Stakes is held in the lingering heat of late summer; and just as in summer, this is a race in which the "fillies" seem dominant. [Table 1]

Strong showing by "graded race winners"

Of 30 horses finishing in the top three places over the past 10 years, half (15) were "horses with experience of winning JRA graded races on turf at 1,200m or shorter." These horses had a win ratio of 10.2%, a Top 2 ratio of 22.4% and a Top 3 ratio of 30.6%, far outperforming that of horses with no experience of winning graded races. Horses with a track record of winning graded sprints should be watched closely, even if their recent form is not too impressive. [Table 2]

Check the "previous race" results

On comparing performances by finish in the previous outing (in a JRA race), no horse finishing "10th or lower" in the previous race has finished in the top three in this race. Basically, this could be seen as a race in which it is difficult to recover from a big defeat. However, while the Top 3 ratio of horses finishing "1st" in the previous race was only 33.3%, that of horses finishing "8th" in the previous race was an impressive 37.5%; even horses finishing "9th" in the previous race have produced two top-three finishes. When trying to choose a strong runner in this race based on its previous outing, there seems little to choose between horses that were vying for victory and those that narrowly avoided a double-figure finish. [Table 3]

Check the "win odds" in the previous race

Looking back at the top-three finishers in the past 10 runnings of the Centaur Stakes, 26 out of 29 were picked "higher than 5th favorite" to win their previous race. The percentage of these horses performing well at the Centaur Stakes were far superior to that of horses that were "6th favorite or lower" in their previous race. When comparing the details of the previous race, it's well worth examining not only the result of the race but also the quality of odds received before the race. [Table 4]

* Summer Sprint Series
A series of five races held from July to September. Runners are awarded points depending on their finish in these races, the Series Champion being the horse that amasses the highest number of points, based on a minimum of 13 points and one win. The owner of the Series Champion receives prize money of 40 million yen and stable personnel 10 million yen.

(Data Analysis by Masaya Ibuki)