Data Analysis for the "Yasuda Kinen (G1)"

The Yasuda Kinen, to be held for the 60th time this year, is the Final Leg of the Asian Mile Challenge that has already seen contests in Australia, Dubai and Hong Kong since February. Held as an international race since 1993, the Yasuda Kinen has seen some strong performances by foreign horses over the past 10 years, with two winners from Hong Kong (Fairy King Prawn in 2000, Bullish Luck in 2006) and two others finishing 2nd (Diktat (UAE) in 2000 and Armada (Hong Kong) in 2008). So what are the trends affecting this contest? Let's take a peep, based on data from the past 10 years.

Spot the trends in performance by age!

In the Yasuda Kinen, the most successful age group over the past 10 years has been "6-year-olds" with victory on no fewer than five occasions. But these have never finished 2nd, crossing the line in 3rd place five times. By contrast, "4-year-olds" have only won once (the year before last, Vodka) but have provided half of all 2nd place finishes. Besides these, "7-year-olds" are doing well with two wins and two runners-up, all four of these being either "foreign-bred horses" or "foreign horses". [Table 1]

Keep an eye on the dark horse!

Viewing runners' performance by betting popularity over the past 10 years, last year's winner Vodka was the only one that went into the race as "Favorite" to win, the first in 11 years since Taiki Shuttle in 1998. By contrast, 14 horses tagged as "6th-10th favorite" have finished in the first three places, and no fewer than five have won the race. Maybe this tells us not to underestimate the dark horse? [Table 2]

Performance by distance of previous race?

Looking next at the performance by distance run in the previous race, horses previously appearing in "1400m" and "1500-1600m" races have provided 22 of the 30 top three finishes. In terms of ratios, this group fares worse than others whose previous race was over different distances. This is because the group provides a large proportion of the runners, and moreover includes some that failed miserably in their previous race. Nevertheless, a record of six wins, seven 2nd places and nine 3rd places is not to be scoffed at. It might be worth watching horses that have stepped up from the turf 1400m Keio Hai Spring Cup, the turf 1600m GI Victoria Mile, Hong Kong Champions Mile, Yomiuri Milers Cup, or others. [Table 3]

Good form by 2nd and 3rd finishers in the previous race!

Horses finishing "2nd" or "3rd" in their previous race tend to do well in the Yasuda Kinen. Comparing various ratios, those finishing "2nd" and "3rd" in their previous race have vastly outperformed those that won their previous race, and their form is certainly worth watching. Last year's runner-up Deep Sky finished "2nd" in the previous race (Sankei Osaka Hai), while 3rd placed Faridat also finished "3rd" in the previous race (Keio Hai Spring Cup). The implications for this year's race are clear – check the runners for 2nd and 3rd finishes in their previous race! [Table 4]

Look for horses with good records in big races!

Over the past 10 years, horses "with top 3 finishes in international or domestic GI in their previous five races" have taken at least one of the top two places in the Yasuda Kinen every year. Over the last 2 years, in fact, these horses have finished both 1st and 2nd in the race, suggesting that horses with good records in big races should be watched closely. [Table 5]

* When there is more than one race in question, the most recent is listed.
* Includes overseas races (G1).

(Data Analysis by Yasunori Asano)