Data Analysis for the “Takamatsunomiya Kinen (G1)”

Of five winners of the Takamatsunomiya Kinen over the past 5 years, Fine Grain (2008) is the only one to have triumphed in another 1200m graded race on turf. This race is supposed to be the very pinnacle of sprinter races in the first half of the year – and yet it has been dominated, in recent years, by horses that have only just started out in sprinting! So, will another “fresher” take the crown this year, or will the champions of sprint graded races step up to the mark for once? To help us interpret this GI race, famed for its ferocious contests, let us now search for shared trends among good performers in the race over the past 10 years.

Strong form by horses with a good record in mile-plus graded races!

Of the 30 horses finishing in the top three places over the past 10 years, more than half (18) had “experience of a top two finish in graded races of 1600m or more on turf”. Last year’s winner Laurel Guerreiro, for example, had notched up 5 top two finishes in graded races of 1600m or more on turf, including 1st place in the 2008 Tokyo Shimbun Hai and 2nd in the 2007 NHK Mile Cup. Horses with experience of a top two finish in graded races of 1600m or more on turf have a strong success rate, with a top 3 ratio of 32.1%. Despite the relatively short distance of this race (1200m), we should keep an eye on runners with a strong record in distances over a mile or more. [Table 1]

* Not including local government racing and overseas races

Moreover, of the horses that had “experience of a top two finish in graded races of 1600m or more on turf”, those that attracted winning odds of “less than 20 to 1” in this race performed even better, with a top 2 ratio of 35.5% and a top 3 ratio of 51.6%. Horses with a decent record in graded races of a mile or more, and with commensurate support in the betting odds, would seem to be more reliable. [Table 2]

* Not including local government racing and overseas races

Watch the outside stalls!

A survey of performance by stall number shows that the only stalls to produce a top 3 ratio of 20.0% or more were “Bracket number 6 stalls”, “Bracket number 7 stalls” and “Bracket number 8 stalls” – the outer stalls. Some good performers come from the inner stalls, but in general, horses in the outside stalls are the ones to watch. [Table 3]

Next, let’s take a look at the performance by stall number of “horses with winning odds of 10 to 1 or more”. Here, the only stalls to produce three or more horses with top three finishes were “Bracket number 8 stalls” (5 horses) and “Bracket number 7 stalls” (3 horses). When comparing horses that come with no particularly strong reputation, it might be an idea to focus on the runner in the outer stall. [Table 4]

Outcome often decided by “catchers” and “overtakers”!

Of the 30 horses finishing in the top three places over the past 10 years, 22 were lying “5th or lower” at the fourth corner. Despite being a relatively short race over 1200m of turf, and moreover with a flat final stretch before the finish, it seems relatively rare for the early leader to go the whole distance. Perhaps that is only to be expected from a GI race that features a lineup of the very best performers over short distances. [Table 5]

Furthermore, a look at the performance by position at the 4th corner of “horses with winning odds of less than 10 to 1” shows that horses placed “5th or lower” at the 4th corner had a win ratio or top 2 ratio nearly twice as good as that of horses “within the front 4”. Particularly when comparing horses among the favorites in betting, we should pay more attention to the “chasers” and “overtakers” than the “runaways” and “leaders”. [Table 6]

Focus on horses whose previous race was the “Hankyu Hai”!

Of the 20 horses finishing in the top two places over the past 10 years, 12 ran in the “Hankyu Hai” in their previous race. Conversely, only two horses whose previous race was the “Silk Road Stakes” have seen a top two finish, and only one whose previous race was the “Ocean Stakes”. Among the horses that have run in the main step races, those whose previous race was “Hankyu Hai” vshould be watched with interest. [Table 7]

* Hankyu Hai includes races before 2005, when it was held over 1200m on turf.
* Ocean Stakes includes races before 2005, when it was held as an open special race.

Since 2006, moreover, the “Hankyu Hai”, previously a turf 1200m race at Hanshin, has been extended to 1400m, while the “Ocean Stakes”, previously an open special race, has been held as a graded race. Nevertheless, even in terms of the performance by previous race since 2006, horses whose previous race was “Hankyu Hai” still have the best success rate. Even when the conditions of the preliminary contests are changed, there seems to be no change in the dominance of “horses whose previous race was the “Hankyu Hai”. [Table 8]

(Data Analysis by Masaya Ibuki)