Data Analysis for the "Japan Cup Dirt (G1)"

The Japan Cup Dirt was inaugurated in 2000 as an international invitation race held on the day before the Japan Cup. From last year onwards, the date of the race was put back by one week and the venue was changed from the 2,100m dirt course at Tokyo to the 1,800m course at Hanshin. Until now, the only "foreign horses" to finish in the top three have been Lord Sterling (3rd in the inaugural race) and Fleetstreet Dancer (winner in the 4th year). So while it's obvious that "Japanese horses" are overwhelmingly superior in terms of past performance, what other trends can be gleaned from this race? Let's see what we can discover from the results over the last nine years.

Performance by age?!

The Japan Cup Dirt brings out good performances from "5-year-olds" and "6-year-olds". "3-year-olds" also have a respectable record, having won the race three times. By contrast, no "4-year-olds" have ever triumphed here. A worrying statistic is that, of the thirty 4-year-olds that have entered the race so far, only five have ever finished in the top three. Also worth remembering is that veterans of "7 years old and up" tend to have a pretty woeful time of it.
[Table 1]

* 2002 - held on the 1,800m dirt course at Nakayama
* From 2008 - held on the 1,800m dirt course at Hanshin

Pointers from popularity in betting?!

To classify the results over the past nine years by popularity in betting, eight of nine horses that started as "Favorite" have finished in the top three, with a top two ratio of 66.7% and a top three ratio of 88.9%. The odd one out, Fast Friend in 2000, could only finish 5th, but even so, this could be seen as a race in which the "Favorite" delivers the goods. The same cannot be said of the "2nd favorite" or "3rd favorite". The only one of these to break into the upper ranks was Wing Arrow (finishing 2nd as 3rd favorite in 2001), which had actually won the race in the previous year. Conversely, horses billed as "4th favorite" have romped home as winners on new fewer than three occasions. Perhaps this trend could provide some pointers for this year's race as well? [Table 2]

Watch out for runners with success in regional racing!

In the results so far, Japanese horses have been supremely dominant in the Japan Cup Dirt. Looking at those results more closely, except in 2002 when the race was held at Nakayama, we discover that horses are more likely to finish in the top two if they have a "top two finish in a regional dirt grade race in one of their previous two outings". The 2008 winner Kane Hekili had trotted home 9th in his previous race (Musashino Stakes), his first outing in about 28 months, but in the race before that (the 2006 Teio Sho at Ohi Racecourse) he had finished 2nd. It might be a good idea to check the record of runners in this year's race to see if they have some regional prizes in their trophy cabinet. [Table 3]

* When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is specified.

Watch out for good performers in summer racing!

Although the Japan Cup Dirt is held in late autumn, horses with a "top two finish in July or August" have also finished in the first two places in this race in each of the last nine years. What's more, eight of the nine horses in question (the exception being the 2003 winner Fleetstreet Dancer - 2nd in an ordinary race on July 26th) have actually won a race in that period. So we'll be looking back over the records for summer winners among this year's runners, then? [Table 4]

* When there is more than one race in question, the most recent one is specified.

(Data Analysis by Yasunori Asano)