Data Analysis for the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup (G1)

This race used to be the final leg of the Triple Crown series for 3-year-old fillies, but assumed new significance as the "autumn champion filly decider" when 4-year-olds joined the fray in 1996. For many 3-year-olds, this race is the first chance to compete against the strongest fillies aged 4-year-olds and up. There has recently been stiff competition from abroad as well, notably when the French filly Tigertail broke into the top three as the10th favorite in 2003. This makes it all the more difficult to compare the strengths of the various runners, but nevertheless, certain trends will be revealed when we analyze the results of this race over the past 10 years.

Consistent 4- and 5-year-olds

Judging from "Performance by age" over the past 10 years, "3-year-olds" are the safest bet, winning this race on five occasions - the most of any age group. To underline this point, 3-year-olds have won the race three years in a row since 2006. But when it comes to the other placings, 3-year-olds have only finished runnerup three times and not even once in 3rd place. In terms of the "Top 3 ratio" (percentage of top three finishes), in fact, 4- and 5-year-olds perform considerably better than 3-year-olds. Besides, 4-year-olds have provided a top three finisher each year, while 5-year-olds have done so five times in the past five years, thus showing greater consistency than the 3-year-olds. [Table 1]

4-year-olds and up, with previous race in "mixed" conditions

A look at the previous race of the participants shows that, while there were only four cases of reference, those coming from the "Tenno Sho (Autumn)" performed consistently well, with two wins, one 2nd place and one 3rd. Two winning horses whose previous race was in the "Other race" bracket were Mejiro Dober (1999, previous race "Mainichi Okan") and Phalaenopsis (2000, "Sapporo Kinen") - both legendary mares, whose prep race was in mixed condition. Another winner, To the Victory (2001), previously ran in an "Overseas race" (the Dubai World Cup). In other words, all five winners aged 4-years-old and up had most recently taken part in mixed colt (horse)-filly (mare) International Grade 2 & Japanese Grade 2 races or higher. What's more, all of the eight 3-year-olds finishing in the top two places previously ran in the "Shuka Sho." Finally, it's worth nothing that all 30 top-three finishers had taken part in a graded race in their previous race. [Table 2]

Placing horses, no lower than 5th favorite in "last-but-one" (second most recent) race

While the previous race for many runners is the "Shuka Sho" or the "Fuchu Himba Stakes," the race before that is less predictable. But even here, as seen in the "previous race" analysis above, all 30 top-three finishers had taken part in graded races in their last-but-one (second most recent) race, and many of them were among the leading favorites for those races. As shown in Table 3, all 20 horses finishing in the top two had been within the top five favorites in their last-but-one race. In particular, horses that were "favorite" or "2nd favorite" in their last-but-one race have each won this race four times. On the other hand, horses that were "10th favorite or lower" in their last-but-one race have failed to produce a single top three finisher. Evidently, the betting popularity in the last-but-one race should also be included among the points to check.

※Excluding nine runners whose last-but-one race was overseas.

Good performance in the fillies' Triple Crown

While many horses only show their true mettle on reaching maturity, many runners in this race have already been prominently active on the big stage as 3-year-olds. Judging from "Performance by highest placing in fillies' Triple Crown races", of the 20 top-two finishers, a total of 16 had previously finished "1st" or "2nd" in the fillies' Triple Crown races as well. Only two of the top two finishers - last year's winner Little Amapola, and 2004, 2005 runnerup Osumi Haruka - finished "3rd or lower" in a fillies' Triple Crown race [Table 4].

※ From a total of 124 horses with experience of running in fillies' Triple Crown races.
※ Excluding 6 horses trained overseas.

Finally, Table 5 shows "Performance by highest betting popularity in fillies' Triple Crown races." Of the 10 winners of this race, seven had been "Favorite" in a fillies' Triple Crown race, while the remaining three had been "2nd favorite." Again, of the 20 top-two finishers, 17 had been "Favorite" or "2nd favorite" in fillies' Triple Crown races.

※ From a total of 124 horses with experience of running in fillies’ Triple Crown races.
※ Excluding 6 horses trained overseas.

(Data Analysis by Michio Kono)