Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) - Preview

With Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) champion Logi Universe concentrating his efforts on winning the Japan Cup this fall, the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Kyoto Racecourse on Sunday has become everyone's game. The third and last leg of the Japanese Triple Crown is generally the most predictable of the three races, but an exception can certainly be made in 2009 as there seems to be no outstanding pick on the horizon.

The Kikuka Sho became a part of the Japanese fixtures in 1938, modeled after the British St. Leger open to 3-year-old colts and fillies, but not geldings. Like the race held at Doncaster, the Kikuka Sho is part of the Japanese Classics and has been held over 3,000 meters in Japan's ancient capital ever year apart from 1979, when the racetrack was undergoing renovation and organized at Hanshin instead.

Starting on the backstretch, the Kikuka Sho runs righthanded on the outside oval at Kyoto, meaning whoever wins the honors must successfully conquer the course's most predominant feature, a hill on the penultimate turn with an undulation of four meters, a feat that requires both speed as well as stamina. The final straight remains flat over a fairly spacious 404 meters.

Only six previous winners of the Kikuka Sho have swept all three races of the Triple Crown series: Saint Lite, Shinzan, Mr. C.B., Symboli Rudolf, Narita Brian and most recently in 2005, Deep Impact. It is widely regarded as the most difficult race to win in the Triple Crown, with its conditions tough for any 3-year-old horse to handle.

Winners of the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the 2,400-meter Japanese Derby automatically qualify for entry, as do the top three finishers of the two Kikuka Sho trial races, the 2,200-meter St. Lite Kinen at Nakayama and the 2,400-meter Kobe Shimbun Hai at Hanshin, which has produced seven winners since the turn of the century. Doors were opened to overseas horses in 2001, and currently, as many as seven foreign entries are accepted.

Weights are set at 57 kilograms for colts, 55 kilograms for fillies. 112 million yen goes to the winner in a full field of 18, and post time is at 3:40 p.m. The following are the early favorites for the 70th running of the Kikuka Sho:

Admire Major ADMIRE MAJOR: The favorite in the St. Lite Kinen went under the wire fourth after a bad jump out of the gates, failing to automatically qualify for the Kikuka Sho, but Admire Major's stock hasn't taken much of a hit because of it. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi, who will also send out Unrivaled in the race this Sunday, says Admire Major was at around 60 to 70 percent for the St. Lite Kinen, and his potential is comparable to that of the Satsuki Sho winner at his stable. Hefty compliments for the Agnes Tachyon son, who is emerging as the darkhorse of this year's Kikuka Sho. Expect him to be a top five pick at the morning line - provided that he wins the lot to actually earn a barrier.

Break Run Out BREAK RUN OUT: The only foreign bred in this year's Kikuka Sho, Break Run Out has been the top choice in five of his eight starts, largely a testament to the popularity of his sire Smart Strike and jockey Yutaka Take who rode him four out of eight times. The nomination of the Hirofumi Toda-trained Break Run Out is a bit of a surprise in itself, as the colt had been widely expected to head to the 2,000-meter Tenno Sho (Autumn) at Fuchu next weekend. But after taking a narrow second behind 2008 Satsuki Sho champion Captain Thule in the 2,000-meter Asahi Challenge Cup, showing increased signs of patience during the trip, Toda felt compelled to test Break Run Out's boundaries, rather than write him off as a miler or a middle-distance runner without giving a 3-year-old colt the benefit of the doubt. No foreign bred horse has finished higher than third in the Kikuka Sho - Air Eminem in 2001 and Roc de Cambes in 2007 - but Break Run Out could break ground on Sunday.

Forgettable FORGETTABLE: On paper, there aren't too many better Japanese thoroughbreds. Forgettable is sired by former Kikuka Sho champion Dance in the Dark, out of Air Groove who won the 1996 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and the 1997 Tenno Sho (Autumn). He is owned by the Kaneko Makoto Holdings Co. Ltd., which used to stake a claim in a certain horse by the name of Deep Impact. Forgettable, who was purchased for 245 million yen as a yearling, could be coming into his own after finishing third in the St. Lite Kinen to qualify for the Kikuka Sho. Trainer Yasuo Ikee reckons the colt will fully blossom sometime next year, but thinks Forgettable could be interesting at the distance of 3,000 meters since he can stay at any pace. Without a single dominant presence in the field, the Kikuka Sho may turn out to be unforgettable for this horse.

I Ko Piko I KO PIKO: His Hawaiian name means "top" or "peak," which could be fitting for this son of Manhattan Cafe after the race on Sunday. I Ko Piko raised more than a few eyebrows after capturing the Kobe Shimbun Hai as the seventh choice, over the likes of Reach the Crown, Seiun Wonder and Unrivaled in record time. Trainer Masato Nishizono says he had a hunch I Ko Piko might run well, just not to the extent he did in his two-length victory at Hanshin. Now that the word is out and with Hirofumi Shii returning in the saddle, I Ko Piko should be a top five pick in the Kikuka Sho, and judging by his pedigree and performance in the Kobe Shimbun Hai, the distance does not look like it will be an issue. Shii, hot off his win in the Shuka Sho with Red Desire, just may go top with I Ko Piko on Sunday.

Nakayama Festa NAKAYAMA FESTA: Nakayama Festa's jockey Masayoshi Ebina won the 2001 Kikuka Sho aboard Manhattan Cafe - now the Japan Racing Association's leading sire - so take it from him when he says trainer Yoshitaka Ninomiya's colt can handle 3,000 meters, despite voices of concern over his staying ability. Nakayama Festa started the fall season well with a half-length victory in the St. Lite Kinen, which has not produced a Kikuka Sho winner during the past decade. The Stay Gold son was forced out of action for three months in the spring with injury, and an obvious lack of work led to him finishing eighth in the Satsuki Sho. His conditioning had picked up for the Japanese Derby, but the turf generously listed as soft held him back to fourth. Ninomiya, who has yet to win the Kikuka Sho in six previous tries, has Nakayama Festa as fit as he's ever been for the Kikuka Sho, and it will be up to Ebina to keep him at ease during the long journey, which, given the horse's temperament, is easier said than done.

Polka Mazurka POLKA MAZURKA: The Shadai Race Horse group is paying an additional registration fee of 2 million yen to enter Polka Mazurka, the only filly nominated for the race. The Timber Country daughter ran three races at 2,600 meters in Sapporo over the summer, improving with each start to, finish third, second and first. One person impressed with the Yoshihiro Hatakeyama-trained horse was jockey Norihiro Yokoyama, who must have turned down other offers he certainly had to ride Polka Mazurka, which is a compliment in itself. Apart from the experience she's had at long distance, there are no certainties here, just a lot of good signs that make her the most intriguing pick among this year's lot.

Reach the Crown REACH THE CROWN: Trainer Kojiro Hashiguchi puts him in the same class as two former standouts from his stable: Dance in the Dark and Heart's Cry, the former himself a winner of the 1996 Kikuka Sho and runnerup in the Japanese Derby; and the latter won the Arima Kinen and the Dubai Sheema Classic - not to mention that he is the only Japanese horse to have beaten Deep Impact, whose legend seems to grow with each year. So when a well respected horseman like Hashiguchi makes such comparisons, one can only get his hopes up about Reach the Crown. Yet despite the horse's obvious quality, the Special Week colt has had temper issues so fierce that even superstar jockey Yutaka Take struggles to rein him in on a bad day, like this past April 19 when he finished 13th among 18 in the Satsuki Sho. But if Reach the Crown can harness his god given talent, then he is without question among the top of his class as evidenced in the soft going Japanese Derby, in which he was runnerup to Logi Universe. In his first race of the fall season, the Kobe Shimbun Hai, Reach the Crown was an impressive second to surprise package I Ko Piko despite being 18 kilograms under from the Tokyo Yushun. Hashiguchi has guaranteed Reach the Crown will put the weight back on for the Kikuka Sho, making him an inviting pick for the punters. If Take - who has won the race a record four times - can keep him together over the 3,000 meters, then Reach the Crown has more than an excellent shot at landing himself the crown which he has coveted.

Seiun Wonder SEIUN WONDER: Not since Narita Brian won it in 1994 by an amazing seven lengths has a winner of the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes gone on to win the Kikuka Sho. Seiun Wonder is hoping to end the jinx this weekend after taking third in the 2,400-meter Kobe Shimbun Hai, showing that the Masazo Ryoke-trained colt can last another 600 meters to win what would be his first race since the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes. The Grass Wonder son placed in the Satsuki Sho, but went down at 13th in the Japanese Derby which was held in conditions far from what one would describe as firm. With all three of his victories coming at 1,600 meters, Seiun Wonder is seen as a natural miler and trying to win a race nearly twice as long has been deemed as farfetched by some. But jockey Yuichi Fukunaga claims his mount can race at 3,000 meters, as long as he eases into the pace, which will likely be set by Reach the Crown. Without a clear favorite in the field, Seiun Wonder's chances to add another title are as good as any.

Triumph March TRIUMPH MARCH: He was runnerup in the Satsuki Sho behind Unrivaled, but came in 14th among 18 in the Japanese Derby. Trainer Katsuhiko Sumii's colt was 10th out of 14 in the Kobe Shimbun Hai last month, leaving some to wonder if Triumph March was just a flash in the pan. But his sire Special Week won the Tokyo Yushun and his dam captured the Oka Sho, so a lot continues to be projected for Triumph March who again will be partnered by the younger Take, Koshiro, this weekend. Triumph March had lost a dozen kilograms in the Kobe Shimbun Hai after a layoff of four months since the Japanese Derby, and it remains to be seen how that will affect him in the Kikuka Sho. Further weight loss would be a definite minus, so the pre-race weigh-in may gauge a lot about Triumph March's chances.

Unrivaled UNRIVALED: His sire, Neo Universe, came up short in his bid to win the Triple Crown, finishing third in the 2003 Kikuka Sho under Mirco Demuro, who after the defeat said the race was too long for his colt. Six years on, this son of Neo Universe will try to score one for his old man, and restore his reputation as the best horse of his generation. Reigning Satsuki Sho champion Unrivaled - out of Ballet Queen, the dam of former Japanese Derby champion Fusaichi Concorde - is coming off a distant fourth-place finish in the Kobe Shimbun Hai as the No. 1 choice, his first race since finishing 12th in the Tokyo Yushun. Unrivaled showed clear signs of rust, flying off the blocks and never settling in the 2,400-meter race. He didn't have a single moment throughout the trip before going under the wire four-and-a-half lengths after winner I Ko Piko. Yet jockey Yasunari Iwata, who won the 2004 Kikuka Sho aboard eventual Melbourne Cup holder Delta Blues, isn't the least bit worried ahead of this weekend, claiming he was trying a few things out with his partner like the positioning. Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi has been saying since the spring that Unrivaled has the lungs to last 3,000 meters, so if the rest of us take their word for it, then there's a very good chance he will collect a second jewel in the Triple Crown this weekend. The Kikuka Sho will be an important race for Unrivaled, not just in terms of wins or losses, but as one that could shape the future of his career.