Shuka Sho (G1) - Preview

The 14th Shuka Sho (G1) to be held this Sunday afternoon at Kyoto Racecourse will revolve around one horse: Buena Vista, who will try to become just the third horse ever to sweep the filly's Triple Crown, and the first since Still in Love accomplished the rare feat in 2003.

The War Emblem-sired 11th choice, Black Emblem, took last year's Shuka Sho by a storm to produce the Japan Racing Association's third highest payout ever at 10,982,020 yen [the JRA highest payout (trifecta) is 18,469,120 yen]. But with the Hiroyoshi Matsuda-trained Buena Vista - who at one point was eyeing this year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - in the field, the odds of another wild one seems very unlikely.

The Shuka Sho - literally meaning "autumn flower" in Chinese characters - is a relative new addition to the JRA calendar, set up in 1996 as the third leg of the 3-year-old filly's Triple Crown after the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup, which had served that function previously, opened its doors to 4-year-olds and mares.

Many of the runners in the Shuka Sho go on to race in the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup, which is also held at Kyoto, to take a shot at the older girls, although only two - Fine Motion in 2002 and Daiwa Scarlet in 2007 - have managed to win the pair of races back-to-back.

The Shuka Sho has been certified as an international Grade 1 race as of this year, meaning up to nine foreign horses can be accepted. The race also automatically draws the winners of the first two races of the Triple Tiara - the Oka Sho (Japanese 1,000 Guineas) and the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) - as well as the top two finishers in the 2,000-meter Shion Stakes at Nakayama and the 1,800-meter Rose Stakes at Hanshin, both held in mid-September.

The race starts on the home stretch of slightly more than 320 meters, circling the inner course at Kyoto for a full lap. The track runs right-handed and is generally flat apart from a rise of three-and-a-half meters at the third turn, which leads right into the final bend.

A full field of 18 is expected for this weekend's Shuka Sho starting at the time of 3:40 p.m. in the ancient Japanese capital. The following are the early favorites for the race:

Broad Street BROAD STREET: While Buena Vista and Red Desire will win all the headlines, the Hideaki Fujiwara-trained Broad Street is emerging as the darkest of darkhorses after wining the Grade 2 Kansai Telecasting Corp. Sho Rose Stakes in record time. She came in a distant fourth in the Japanese Oaks in late May, finishing almost five lengths after Buena Vista, but beat Red Desire by a neck in the Rose Stakes for her first graded victory. With the ever bold Shinji Fujita in the saddle, this daughter of Agnes Tachyon could spring a surprise on the top two picks in the Shuka Sho, one of whom she has already upset. Likely the best bet of Fujiwara's three gals alongside Germinal and Wide Sapphire, Broad Street will be pressure free and should have her moment or two at Kyoto's inner oval, which has been known to be unkind to those who come from behind - like Buena Vista.

Buena Vista BUENA VISTA: Until her stunning loss to Yamanin Kingly in the Grade 2 Sapporo Kinen over 2,000 meters on Aug. 23, this daughter of Special Week out of Biwa Heidi had been seen by some as Japan's best chance yet to win the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, given the handicap awarded to 3-year-old fillies in arguably the world's most prestigious race. But Buena Vista, in her first race since winning the Japanese Oaks, finished second at 52 kilograms, a neck behind Yamanin Kingly - a result which clearly did not satisfy her trainer Matsuda and the Sunday Racing Co. Ltd. ownership team, leading to her disappointing withdrawal from the Arc. Yet the cancellation of the trip to France is a sign that the Buena Vista camp is dead serious about capturing the last jewel in the filly's Triple Crown, which doesn't bode particularly well for the other horses in the lot. Jockey Katsumi Ando, who suffered a heartbreaking defeat of just one centimeter on B B Guldan in the Sprinters Stakes to Laurel Guerreiro, will be extra sure to put the Shuka Sho away, a race he previously won with the legendary Daiwa Scarlet in 2007 who was retired earlier this year. Matsuda says his filly is coming along fine, and the only question mark for Buena Vista is her positioning, which usually tends to be at the back and could pose a particular problem for her at the Kyoto course. Yet neither the conditions nor the competition have been able to contain Buena Vista, who has won 5-of-7 for her career so far. Not placing is nearly unimaginable for the JRA's biggest star this side of Vodka.

Coup de Grace COUP DE GRACE: This White Muzzle-sired filly will be looking to pull a coup after sneaking into the Shuka Sho field by finishing third as the 10th choice in the Rose Stakes to qualify. The Hironori Kurita-trained Coup de Grace should be unmarked in the Shuka Sho, which will make Yuga Kawada's job in the saddle all that much easier, a jockey who has a knack and a reputation for being able to get the most - or overachieving, depending on the way one looks at it - aboard a less than popular mount. That will be difficult, to say the least, against Buena Vista and Red Desire, but never say never.

Germinal GERMINAL: One of several in the race sired by the late Agnes Tachyon, Germinal, at the very least, needs a convincing performance here to hold on to her status as one of the best of her generation. Bred by Shadai Farm and owned by the Shadai Race Horse group, trainer Hideaki Fujiwara's filly did well in the spring, finishing third in both the Oka Sho and the Yushun Himba behind Buena Vista and Red Desire. But Germinal's campaign got off to a less than stellar start, coming in 11th as the No. 4 pick in the Rose Stakes. Even considering the fact that it was her first race in nearly four months, the performance was far from encouraging, with the top dogs of this year's crop like Buena Vista, Red Desire and Broad Street all looking respectable this fall. Germinal's jockey Yuichi Fukunaga has shown twice and placed once in the Shuka Sho over the last five years, so she has that going for her. Yet Shadai's blueblood has a lot of catching up to do, and time is not on her side. Germinal is a tough call for the punters.

Hashitte Hoshino HASHITTE HOSHINO: Like Germinal, Hashitte Hoshino is another horse popular because of a decent pedigree (by Agnes Tachyon, out of Admise) and the occasional teasing performance showing her good potential. After coming in eighth in the Japanese Oaks, she won her first race of the season - the Miomotegawa Tokubetsu on Aug. 29, a 10 million yen allowance race at Niigata - but trainer Takahisa Tezuka's filly will need a lot more than a strong effort if she is to retain her billing as one of the top prospects of her class. Yet she is inexperienced, with only six races under her belt, so there is still every chance Hashitte Hoshino could get her big break on Sunday.

Mikrokosmos MIKROKOSMOS: Superstar jockey Yutaka Take's baby has been tearing fans apart between her oozing potential and her disappointing results. In eight career starts, Mikrokosmos, by former Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) champion Neo Universe, has been the top pick five times but only has three victories to show for, none of them graded. The Katsuhiko Sumii-trained filly finished fourth, three lengths behind Broad Street in the Rose Stakes as the second choice, and Mikrokosmos will need to prove she is more than just hype by giving the favorites a run for their money in the Shuka Sho. The combination of Take and Sumii, however, will be hard to overlook for all their success together in the past.

Red Desire - horse number 11 RED DESIRE: Some are betting that the runnerup to Buena Vista in both the Oka Sho and the Japanese Oaks will finally reach the Grade 1 winner's circle this weekend. Red Desire, under Hirofumi Shii, took second in the Rose Stakes to Broad Street by a neck, but after shaking off the rust in the season's first race, the Mikio Matsunaga-trained offspring of Manhattan Cafe should be primed for success in the Shuka Sho. Unlike Buena Vista, Red Desire, who is expected to be the second overall choice, can handle any pace and come off any position, and the flexibility is a definite plus in a race with a history of wild results. She may not boast the fierce closing rush of her rival, but Red Desire - who has won two and shown three in five starts - could even be a safer pick than Buena Vista on Sunday.

Diana Barows DIANA BAROWS: The 11th choice winner of the Shion Stakes at Nakayama on Sept. 12, the Symboli Kris S-sired Diana Barows will fly under the radar of most critics and fans, but her victory in the Shuka Sho trial race has been drawing kudos from some camps. The gap between her and Buena Vista in the Japanese Oaks was nine lengths, but Diana Barows should show she is a much better horse than that this Sunday under Koichi Tsunoda.