Sunday, April 20th sees the 68th running of the Satsuki Sho, the first leg of the prestigious Triple Crown classics for colts in Japan. Modeled on the English classics, Japan's classic features were established to provide a method choosing the best breeding prospects in the country, and as such, geldings are not allowed to enter.
The Satsuki Sho is run over a 2000m course at Nakayama racecourse (just outside Tokyo) and involves just over one lap of the inner track. The race starts in the final straight, with a run of just over 300m to the first turn (out of the straight) before a run of about 400m down the back straight and then the final turn leads into the 310 final straight. The early stages of the race are run uphill as the horses head down and out of the straight the first time. The track then slopes downhill for the rest of the course, before the steep rise in the last 200m of the race which really tests the stamina of the field at the end of the 2000m race.
The Satsuki Sho's previous winners list includes almost all the greats of the Japanese turf. Obviously all previous triple crown winners (Shinzan, Symboli Rudolf, Narita Brian and recent star Deep Impact) won the race before going on to win the other two legs, but other stars to win the race include Tokai Teio, T. M. Opera O, Daiwa Major and Meisho Samson. Unfortunately last year's winner Victory has failed to impress since after leading all the way at 16/1.
This year's field is once again full of 3yo colts who have showed great potential so far. But this is the race that generally sorts out the top horses of the crop from the pretenders. There are no standouts in the eyes of the Japanese punters, with only one horse (Meiner Charles) winning two principal races since the crop started racing last summer.
Meiner Charles looks set to start a clear (but not a short) favorite for Sunday's event, with a very impressive record to date. After finishing 4th on debut at Tokyo (over 1800m), he won his next start over the same course. His following four runs have all been over Sunday's 2000m Nakayama course, and after finishing 2nd at his first attempt, he has won his last 3! The fields he has met have got better each time, and after winning the Keisei Hai two starts back, he won the traditional lead-up to this race, the Yayoi Sho last start convincingly. He usually races handy, but the one time he was caught up in traffic, he showed tremendous determination to find his way out and charge to the line to win (two starts back), so it is difficult to imagine him missing a place in this race on Sunday.
Of the major threats to the likely favorite, the Yutaka Take handled Black Shell looks one of the most likely. The nicely bred colt is a beautiful looking horse who has had many fans following him since his debut last November, and he has only failed once in that period - when badly missing the start in the Kisaragi Sho two starts back. Even though he was forced to come from last at the top of the straight on that occasion, he was only narrowly beaten in a blanket finish (he was much closer than the 7th placing would suggest), and he showed that that result was no guide to his ability when chasing home Meiner Charles last start for 2nd. He is not as versatile as Meiner Charles, so the tight turning Nakayama course will not be in his favor, but it does look as if he may be one of the most talented 3yos in Japan at the moment and if Take can navigate a reasonable course for him on Sunday, he should be there at the business end.
Not many foals were eventually sired by the Shadai purchased War Emblem, but Shonan Alba looks like being a good horse. After finishing 2nd on debut, he rushed through the ranks with 3 consecutive wins including the Kyodo News Service Hai in February, and was sent out favorite last start in another lead up to the Satsuki Sho, the 1800m Spring Stakes at Nakayama. After pulling terribly during the run, last December's Arima Kinen winning jockey Masayoshi Ebina was forced to run to the lead in the mid stages of the race, and although he spent a lot of energy getting there, he fought very well all the way down the straight to hang on to 3rd place. With not much pace expected on Sunday, Ebina may let him run along here and with the right run he looks like he may be very hard to run down.
The winner of that Spring Stakes, Smile Jack is obviously another of the main chances on Sunday. He is yet to be unplaced in 7 starts and showed that he is up to the best of them when winning over 1800m last starts. He races handy and fights on well, so there are plenty of reasons to expect him to be in the finish on Sunday as well.
Many other horses seem to have good place chances on Sunday. Below is a brief look at them:
Admire Command: May not run here as the trainer has been aiming him at the Derby, but he looks like making the field, and although he has only had the two starts so far, he was impressive on debut before running very well for 2nd with no luck in a principal race at his second start. It certainly appears that he has enough potential to warrant a run.
Captain Thule: Failed as an odds-on favorite on debut, but he has been very consistent since. Races on the pace and has done well over the course in top fields his past two runs, but the 2000m may be just a little further than he likes it.
Suzu Jupiter: Was sent out favorite in last year's top class race for juveniles (Futurity Stakes) but settled too far back and ran on well for 5th. Was not beaten very far by Meiner Charles and Black Shell in the Yayoi Sho, so it may be too soon to write him off.
Smart Falcon: Looked very good winning his first start on turf here at Nakayama, but has failed at his two starts since on other tracks. May appreciate coming back to Nakayama, but that was a much easier field than what he meets here.
Take Mikazuchi: Always thereabouts and stuck on well for 3rd behind Meiner Charles and Black Shell in the Yayoi Sho, so he certainly has a chance again here.
Dream Signal: Was disappointing when finishing 6th in the Spring Stakes behind Smile Jack last start, but has showed promise throughout his career.
Let's Go Kirishima: Failed last start, but races close to the pace and did cause an upset in the top class Juvenile event last year when he fought on very well for 2nd.
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