The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup will be run for the 32nd time on Sunday 11th November. Established as the Victoria Cup in 1970, the race was originally the final leg of the 3yo fillies' Triple Crown in Japan, and was run at Kyoto racecourse over 2400m. The race was renamed the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup in 1976 after Queen Elizabeth visited Japan in 1975. In 1996, the conditions of the race were changed, with the revised version becoming a 2200m race open for all fillies and mares 3yo and older, still at Kyoto racecourse. The third leg of the 3yo fillies' Triple Crown became the newly established Shunka Sho run over 2000m at Kyoto approximately one month before the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup.
The 2200m course at Kyoto starts in the home straight, with a run of approximately 400m to the first turn. The track is completely flat until a sudden 4m rise from the 1200m to the 800m mark. After reaching the top of the rise at the 800m, there is a downhill run until the 300m mark in the home straight where the course flattens out. The racecourse is a wide spacious one, the crowd record being 143,606 to watch this race - the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup in 1995.
The highlight of this year's running is the 4th clash of the top 3yo fillies Vodka and Daiwa Scarlet. Although Vodka was able to sprint past Daiwa Scarlet in their first meeting in the Tulip Sho in March, Daiwa Scarlet has held off the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner Vodka in their last two meetings - the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) in April and the Shuka Sho last month. Once again, these two look set to dominate the betting on Sunday.
Below is a look at each of the runners expected to be favored on Sunday:
Vodka: Became the first filly in 68 years to win the G1 Japanese Derby, when she easily beat the best 3yo colts in Japan's most prestigious classic race in May. She blotted her record with a poor 8th in the Grade 1 Takarazuka Kinen in June, but the race was an afterthought, and the wet track did not seem to suit. Globetrotting trainer Katsuhiko Sumii had planned to take her to the Group 1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe this year, but those plans were put aside when she sustained a minor injury during her preparation.
Switched back to a domestic campaign for the autumn, she appeared first up in the Shuka Sho last start, where she ranged up to look a threat in the straight before dying on her run as her condition seemed to give out.
Sumii's horses are renowned for performing much better 2nd up, and there is no doubt that Vodka will improve here. The extra 200m and the longer straight for this course will suit better than the course for the Shuka Sho last start, and many in the crowd will be cheering for her in the home straight as she tries to catch the other top 3yo filly, Daiwa Scarlet, who will likely have already gone for home by the time they hit the final straight.
Daiwa Scarlet: The one they all have to catch. Is yet to finish worse than 2nd in her 7 career starts (5 wins), and the only two horses to have beaten her throughout her career have been the Japanese Derby winner Vodka, and 3rd placed Admire Aura.
As an Agnes Tachyon half sister to multiple Grade 1 winning Daiwa Major (by Sunday Silence), big things were always expected of Daiwa Scarlet, and she began her career with two easy wins. She was then beaten for the first time by Admire Aura (one of the best 3yo colts in Japan) before just being run down by Vodka in the Tulip Sho in March. She has since won all her races - the Oka Sho, the Rose Stakes, and the Shuka Sho. She would have started a very short favorite for the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), but had to be withdrawn just before the race with a fever.
The amazing thing about Daiwa Scarlet is that even though she races on the pace (she has never been further back than 3rd during a race), she has recorded sub-34 final 600m sectionals in every single race after her debut (where she won under a stranglehold). This forces any horses behind her to run incredible sectionals, and so far not many have been able to!
Rain Dance: After some average performances in the spring features, Rain Dance showed she had improved over the summer, with very good performances against the top 3yo fillies at her past two starts. With the high level of this year's 3yo fillies, those two runs should be nearly enough to see her installed as 3rd favorite on Sunday.
Finishing on fairly in both the Oka Sho (6th) and the Japanese Oaks (7th), it looked as if this filly may be a little bit out of her depth in top class events, but like so many Dance in the Dark progeny, the best was to come after the early Spring classics. With two wins in a row back in easier class, she was given another shot at the best horses when lining up in the Rose Stakes. Ridden unusually close to the pace, she fought on well to finish 3rd (to top 3yo fillies Daiwa Scarlet and Bella Rheia - who is not lining up on Sunday after being injured last week) and guarantee a start in the Shuka Sho.
In the Shuka Sho, she was sent out a 42/1 chance, but once again she was handily placed during the run and this time finished on even better than last time, and although Vodka ranged up outside her in the straight, she was able to grab 2nd place ahead of the top class race winner, although she was safely held by Daiwa Scarlet.
She has reeled off impressive sectionals in her recent runs, and she seems to have matured this autumn. By Dance in the Dark, the extra 200m should suit well on Sunday, and she will be one of the horses favored to finish 3rd behind the top two.
Sweep Tosho: The 2005 JRA Champion Older Filly / Mare looks to be one of the main dangers to the 3yo fillies who are considered to be one of the best crops ever seen in Japan. The 3-time Grade 1 winner hasn't won a race in over a year, but did finish 2nd in this race last year (promoted from 3rd after Kawakami Princess's demotion) and loves the Kyoto course. Is 2nd up here after finishing a close 4th in the 1400m Grade 2 Swan Stakes on the 27th October, and although the 1600m Grade 1 Mile Championship is another option for her, if she lines up here she could provide the knockout chance. Can run great finishing sectionals and if she puts her mind on the job, she has shown she can beat almost any horse on her day.
Asahi Rising: Another older horse with a place chance in this race. Yet to win a Grade 1 race, but has finished 2nd in the 2006 Grade 1 American Oaks, the 2006 Grade 1 Shuka Sho, and the 2007 Victoria Mile, as well as 3rd in the 2006 Grade 1 Japanese Oaks. Races on the pace and fights on well, but is yet to break 34 seconds for her last 600m, so it would be a surprise if she could beat Daiwa Scarlet here.
Admire Kiss: Yet to win a Grade 1 race, and was actually the beaten favorite in all 3 legs of the 3yo fillies triple crown last year. Her best finish at this level was a 2nd in the 1600m Grade 1 Oka Sho last year, and this is not an easy task.
Kiss to Heaven: Another 4yo to line up here, and is a Grade 1 winner, winning the Grade 1 Oka Sho (beating Admire Kiss) in 2006. Has not won since though, and is first up here since returing from her 4th in the Grade 2 CashCall Mile in the US. Looks a very tough assignment.
Fusaichi Pandora: The winner of this race last year (after first past the post Kawakami Princess was demoted) who has tons of ability but can be hard to catch. Finished 2nd in the Japanese Oaks last year, and beat a good field in the Sapporo Kinen two starts back before being well beaten on dirt last start. Doesn't look to have had the ideal preparation coming into this race, but a good run would not surprise.
Robe Decollete: Winner of the Japanese Oaks this year and has to be given some chance here. Was disappointing last start when finishing 10th in the Shuka Sho, but that was her first run back after travelling to the US for the Grade 1 American Oaks (where she finished 5th). She will be fitter for the run, and this race suits better in every possible way - the extra 200m, the longer straight, and more horses that like to race on the pace. Could be one finishing on well in the straight, but would be a surprise if she could run past the top 2 3yos - neither of which were in the field when Robe Decollete won the Oaks.
Dia de la Novia: A very good finisher who is yet to win at Grade 1 level, but has finished third 3 times, including a 3rd in this race last year. If ridden quietly could be finishing strongly at the end, as she should be improved on her first up 4th at Grade 3 level last start in her first run since returning from the US, where she finished 5th in the Grade 2 CashCall Mile.
Taiki Madeleine: A 4yo who is yet to even place in a Grade race, so will likely be huge odds on Sunday, but looks to have tons of ability, and will appreciate the longer distance here. She seems to have matured this year, and like many of the Brian's Time progeny, they tend to only get better with age and distance. She is a half sister to champion Japanese miler Taiki Shuttle, and may just have the class to put in a good run here.
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